Seasonal Food Prices: Which Ingredients Follow the Calendar, From 10 Years of BLS Data
By Marji · Published · 6 min read
Some ingredient prices follow the calendar and some don't. In ten years of BLS retail prices, strawberries ran 30% above trend in December and 17% below in June, while bananas and chicken breast barely moved by month. Eggs and ground beef changed far more through shocks and long trends than through any season.
The difference matters for a menu. A seasonal price can be planned for a year ahead: feature the dish when the ingredient is cheap, price it for the average, or swap it out in the expensive months. A shock or a trend cannot be planned the same way; it has to be watched on each invoice and answered when it arrives. This analysis separates the two for ten common ingredients.
The data and the method
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly average retail prices for about 70 foods, collected for the Consumer Price Index. BLS notes that it "does not seasonally adjust average prices. Price fluctuations in an average price series reflect normal seasonal price movements" (BLS, average price data) — which is what makes them usable for this. The ten series below are U.S. city averages from January 2016 to December 2025, with the gaps noted under the table, retrieved from the BLS public API; each is also published on FRED under its series ID.
Seasonal factor for a month
Price that month ÷ centered 12-month moving average around it
Take the median factor for each calendar month across the years, then rescale so the twelve months average 1.00. The moving average removes the trend, so a year of rising prices does not look like a seasonal peak.
The simpler version on the seasonality index page — a month's average divided by the year's average — gives the same answer when there is no underlying trend within the year. When they are rising, as eggs and beef were for much of this period, it confuses trend with season; the moving average does not.
Results: how much each ingredient moves by month
| Ingredient (BLS series) | Highest month | Lowest month | Peak vs. low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strawberries, dry pint (APU0000711415) | December, +29.6% | June, −17.3% | 56.7% |
| Oranges, navel, per lb (APU0000711311) | October, +11.9% | April, −8.4% | 22.1% |
| Lettuce, iceberg, per lb (APU0000712211) | April, +9.3% | October, −8.1% | 18.9% |
| Eggs, grade A large, per dozen (APU0000708111) | March, +7.8% | August, −6.6% | 15.4% |
| Tomatoes, field grown, per lb (APU0000712311) | January, +8.0% | May, −6.2% | 15.2% |
| Potatoes, white, per lb (APU0000712112) | July, +3.6% | December, −3.1% | 6.9% |
| Butter, stick, per lb (APU0000FS1101) | January, +2.3% | November, −3.0% | 5.4% |
| Ground beef, 100% beef, per lb (APU0000703112) | July–August, +1.7% | January, −2.5% | 4.3% |
| Chicken breast, boneless, per lb (APU0000FF1101) | May, +1.0% | January, −1.6% | 2.7% |
| Bananas, per lb (APU0000711211) | May, +0.6% | August, −0.9% | 1.6% |
The top five have real seasons. Strawberries are the extreme: in a typical year the December price sits more than half again above the June price. Navel oranges are cheapest in spring and dearest in October; iceberg lettuce peaks in April and bottoms out in the fall; tomatoes are cheapest in late spring and most expensive in midwinter; eggs peak in March and are cheapest in late summer. The bottom five move by a few percent or less, so a price change in them is almost never "just the season".
| Month | Strawberries | Navel oranges | Tomatoes | Eggs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +19.7% | −4.8% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| February | +7.2% | −5.2% | +1.1% | +6.1% |
| March | −2.8% | −5.3% | −1.5% | +7.8% |
| April | −0.4% | −8.4% | −3.3% | +5.0% |
| May | −12.8% | −4.4% | −6.2% | +1.3% |
| June | −17.3% | −2.3% | −2.8% | −5.7% |
| July | −15.7% | +2.6% | −1.6% | −4.6% |
| August | −13.2% | +6.9% | −3.0% | −6.6% |
| September | −8.4% | +7.1% | −3.5% | −1.8% |
| October | −4.6% | +11.9% | +1.1% | −4.4% |
| November | +18.6% | +5.3% | +4.9% | −5.2% |
| December | +29.6% | −3.3% | +6.7% | +4.2% |
Season versus shock
A seasonal factor describes the typical year, and the typical year can be swamped. Eggs have a 15% seasonal swing, yet the monthly average price ran from $1.20 a dozen in June 2019 to $6.23 in March 2025 — more than five times as high — and the annual average went from $1.40 in 2019 to $4.25 in 2025 (the 2025 averages here cover eleven months, because BLS published no October 2025 prices). Ground beef has almost no season, but its annual average rose from $3.75 a pound in 2016 to $6.09 in 2025, 62% higher. Neither of those was a season; both needed repricing decisions.
| Pattern | Examples in this data | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| A repeating season | Strawberries, navel oranges, iceberg lettuce, tomatoes | Plan: feature in the cheap months, price for the year's average, or swap in the dear months |
| A shock | Eggs, 2022–2025 | Watch invoices and set price bands, so you know in advance when a change triggers a reprice |
| A long trend | Ground beef, 2016–2025 | Recost and reprice; a season will not bring it back |
| Little movement | Bananas, chicken breast by month | Any sudden change on your invoice is the supplier, the spec or the market — not the calendar |
Worked example: a strawberry dessert through the year
Worked example · Hypothetical dessert whose strawberries cost $1.00 a plate at the trend price
- December (factor 1.296)
- $1.30 of strawberries
- June (factor 0.827)
- $0.83 of strawberries
- Swing in the strawberry line across the year
- $0.47 a plate
- At 60 plates a week, December versus June
- $28.20 a week
- Planning options
- Feature it May–September, or price it for the average and accept the winter squeeze
This applies the retail seasonal shape to a hypothetical plate cost. Your supplier's prices may move earlier, later or by different amounts than retail shelf prices.
Limits of retail data for a restaurant
- Retail is not wholesale. These are consumer prices at stores. A restaurant's delivered price can move earlier, later or by a different amount.
- National is not local. A U.S. city average blends regions; New York prices and seasons differ from California's.
- The sample is built for indexes. BLS says its sample is "optimized for the calculation of price indexes, not for the calculation of average prices," so product mix and quality changes can move an average price.
- Few years per month. Each factor is a median of four to nine years, depending on gaps in the series. Treat small factors — a percent or two — as no season at all.
The better series is your own. Three or more years of invoices for an ingredient give you its seasonal factors at your supplier, for your spec, in your city — and they are what a commodity index cannot tell you. Marji keeps each ingredient's accepted invoice prices over time, each point tagged with its source, which is the history those factors are calculated from; the invoice price audit explains how to keep that history clean. For current national prices of common ingredients, see Marji's Food Cost Index; for where USDA expects them to go next year, and how far its forecasts have missed, see the 2027 food price forecast.
Which foods have the most seasonal prices?
Of the ten ingredients analyzed, strawberries by far: the typical December price is 56.7% above the typical June price relative to trend. Navel oranges, iceberg lettuce, eggs and tomatoes follow, with swings of 15% to 22%.
Are egg prices seasonal?
Somewhat: they typically run about 8% above trend in March and 7% below in August. But in 2022–2025, shocks moved egg prices far more than the season did — the monthly average reached $6.23 a dozen in March 2025.
Is beef cheaper at certain times of year?
Barely. Ground beef's typical seasonal swing in this data is 4.3%, from January lows to July–August highs, while its annual average rose 62% from 2016 to 2025.
Why not just compare each month with the annual average?
When prices are rising or falling through the year, that comparison mixes the trend into the season. Dividing by a centered 12-month moving average removes the trend first.
Check where ingredient prices are now
See current national prices and recent changes for common restaurant ingredients, with the method behind each series.
Open the Food Cost IndexTerms this guide uses
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