Commodity index

By Marji · Sources and editorial policy

A commodity index tracks the price of a food commodity over time at a national or regional level. For a restaurant its value is diagnostic: when your beef price rises, the index tells you whether beef rose or whether your supplier did.

The two conversations it enables

The market moved. Your supplier's increase is real and industry-wide. The response is repricing the affected dishes, not switching vendors — everyone else's price moved too.
Only your price moved. The index is flat and your invoice isn't. That is a specific, evidenced conversation to have with your rep, and it is a much stronger position than "this feels expensive."

Public sources for US operators: the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes average price series for common foods, and the Producer Price Index covers wholesale. Marji publishes a restaurant-framed version at the food cost index.

Worked example · Telling a market move from a vendor move

Your butter price, January: $3.90/lb
Your butter price, June: $4.72/lb
Your increase: +21%
National index over the same period: +19%
Verdict: market move — reprice, don't switch

Had the index been flat, that same 21% would be a vendor conversation with evidence behind it. Same invoice, opposite conclusion — which is exactly what the benchmark buys you.

The guide that works it through

Food Price Forecast 2027: USDA's Numbers for Restaurant Ingredients, and How Far to Trust Them

USDA's 2027 forecasts for restaurant prices, beef, poultry, dairy, eggs and wholesale costs, an 11-year check of how far such forecasts miss, and a worked 2027 food budget.

Related terms

← All 63 terms